Today (6/24/12) I am revising the top 36 I made on 6/18/12, and re-ranking the top 35 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. This is what I consider to be their value going forward for the rest of the season (not what they have done so far). I will be doing it in tiers and numerical order. If a player is 1 above another in the SAME TIER, then I think that player is barely better than another. If another player is 1 above another in the HIGHER TIER, I think there is a difference of reasonable significance. Here is what I've got:
Super Elite:
1. Justin Verlander
2. Cole Hamels
3. Cliff Lee - 0 wins so far......I will eat my shoe if he has 0 at season's end
4. Gio Gonzalez - switching from the AL to NL has done wonders for Gio. My cohort Sean thinks his numbers have been a little fluky good so far, but I disagree. He has always had dominant type stuff, he just walked too many and had to face a DH. While his walks are still a bit high (3.8 BB/9 in 2012 is actually a career low), his arsenal is just nasty. His 11.4 K/9 is a career high, and his 5.4 Hits/9 is a career low. He is 26 so he is coming into his prime. Even though Oakland was a prime pitcher's ballpark, it wasn't the National League. Going to a good team in the NL has done wonders, and he is a legit Cy Young candidate.
(Kershaw and Halladay would be 3 and 4 if healthy, but unfortunately, they are not. In fact, Halladay is hurt enough that I will leave him out of my top 25. There are so many solid pitchers in baseball, so sorry Doc. Jered Weaver would also be listed in this class somewhere.)
Super Elite Injured:
5. Clayton Kershaw - Kershaw has been diagnosed with plantar fasciitis. Having watched players in different sports such as Rajon Rondo, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Quentin go through this injury, I am definitely worried about Kershaw. This injury may already be explaining why Kershaw's K/9 is down this year to 7.6 from last year's 9.9. He still should probably be very solid moving forward, but don't be surprised if he misses a start here or there. Also, I would assume they will limit innings per start because this injury can be very painful and linger if not treated with ease.
Elite:
6. Felix Hernandez - Has been having problems lately, but just threw a gem with 10 K.
7. Stephen Strasburg - would probably be top 3 if there wasn't a worry about an innings limit at the end of the year. I'm not extremely worried because the Nationals should be in a pennant race. Innings per start should stay around 6 though, whereas someone like Verlander is a complete game threat every time out
8. Jered Weaver (Was #12 while injured)
9. David Price
10. Matt Cain
11. C.J. Wilson
Solid as they come:
12. CC Sabathia
13. Zack Greinke
14. James McDonald - See my previous post. Basically, has elite type stuff and has figured out control. Only negative I see with McDonald going forward is Pittsburgh's horrid offense. But hey, you've gladly owned Felix Hernandez for years haven't you?
15. R.A. Dickey - his knuckleball continues to stifle major league pitchers. Can't deny him from the top 15 any longer, even at age 37.
16. Chris Sale - Took him from the tier below and moved him up. His stuff is just filthy. The threat of innings limit scares me. At best, innings will be limited per start. Still, as long as he is on the mound he will be helping your fantasy team
17. Johnny Cueto - On a very good team, and is sporting a 2.21 ERA. His WHIP was a little high, but he has taken care of that as of late (0.78 ERA, 0.74 WHIP last 15 days)
18. Dan Haren - Was starting to heat up when I first wrote this article, but now back to inconsistency. Fell apart at end of year last year, but I still have faith he will return to form
19. Madison Bumgarner
Still pretty solid, but with some risk:
20. Brandon Morrow - Proving to me that his dominant stuff is now complimented by solid control and the ability to be a pitcher, and not just a thrower. Still, been known to blow up on any given night. (CURRENTLY ON DL)
21. Jordan Zimmermann - Injury prone past somewhat scary. K/9 rate not as high as elite, but his ERA and WHIP always reliable.
22. Jake Peavy - Pitching like the Peavy of old. Hasn't been healthy in quite some time though.....
23. James Shields - Had unsustainable BABIP from last year. Still better than his 3.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP
Guys who I have faith in who just haven't put up elite numbers yet:
24. Ricky Romero
25. Ian Kennedy
26. Yovani Gallardo - Ugly year so far (4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but had a 2.83 ERA in May. History says he (and everyone else in this tier) will turn it around
Injury concerns:
27. Johan Santana - Has been stellar, but I don't trust him. 130+ pitch perfect game won't help his arm either. Hard to argue he isn't better than the pitchers in the tier above, but I just wouldn't.
28. Roy Halladay - I had to put him somewhere. I think now I officially would rather own him than the pitchers below. I can wait the 4-6 weeks and hope I get a SP back of top tier quality.
Very good:
29. Lance Lynn - Where did this guy come from? Having a great year no doubt. Unfortunately, if you look closer, somewhat of a regression seems to be coming. I hate using the term "regression" but here I think it applies. His walks have gone up every month (including the pace they are on in June). His batting average against per month: .176, .234, .256. I see him being good the rest of the year, but not as good as his numbers suggest
30. Matt Garza - Good stuff but on a horrible team. ERA is a little inflated this year, and will probably go down, but Ryan Dempster proves that he won't get wins even if its at 1.00 for the rest of the year.
31. Shaun Marcum - Not flashy nor young, but just consistently puts up solid fantasy numbers year after year (CURRENTLY ON DL)
32. Jon Lester - Has always been on the fringe of elite if he could just lower his ERA and WHIP a little bit. As that was the consensus coming into this year again, his ERA and WHIP have soared even higher. 4.48 and 1.37 to be exact. The Red Sox defense has suffered with the outfield injuries and Bobby V moving players in spots they shouldn't be. I expect his numbers to get significantly better, but he just isn't elite. Let's finally face it.
33. Yu Darvish - His stuff is absolutely filthy, but I can't rank a starter any higher than this that pitches in Texas and leads the league in walks. That is a recipe for disaster. That being said, he should win plenty of games with that solid Texas lineup giving him support.
34. Anibal Sanchez - Having a seemingly breakout year. Gotta be careful though... he had a solid start last year with a 2.82 ERA through June 30 (April May June of 2011, 105.1 IP, 33 ER, 29 BB, 90 hits= ERA of 2.82, WHIP of 1.13) but finished the year with a 3.67 ERA, racking up ugly numbers in the later months of the season (July Aug Sept= 91 IP, 47 ER, 97 hits, 35 BB=4.648 ERA, WHIP of 1.45). Hopefully he has matured enough from last year to be able to sustain these numbers this year............I LEFT THIS DISCLAIMER UP FROM WHEN I FIRST RANKED SP. HE IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS @SeanApfelbaum GUESSED WHICH IS WHY HE WAS MOVED DOWN FROM 25 TO HERE
35. Jason Hammel - Does not seem to be slowing down (1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP last 23 IP). Orioles seem to be real contenders.
So there you have it, there is my top 35. Guys on the bubble: Edwin Jackson (having a career year, but his career numbers suggest a fluke), Adam Wainwright (Too few QS this year), Jeremy Hellickson (doesn't strike out enough batters), Tim Hudson (see Hellickson, Jeremy), Tommy Hanson (recent injuries + 1.38 WHIP), Jeff Samardzija (was ranked, but falling apart. Could be attributed to never being a SP before and innings piling up), Trevor Bauer (Just called up), Andy Pettitte (solid numbers so far 54.2 IP 52 K but old and in Yankee stadium) and Mat Latos (wake me up when his ERA gets under 4.50)
Also, footnote: Brandon Beachy was listed at #17 when I first wrote this article. His Tommy John surgery has pulled him from this list...........but not from our minds in keeper leagues!
Let me know your thoughts. Always love to hear criticism/reinforcement. Hit up the twitter @fwfantasy or e-mail us at foulweatherfantasy@gmail.com
I'm out.
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