Ricky's Ramblings: Romero Must Be Hurt/NBA Draft Preview

Hello reader(s).  After having Sean post such a thorough article about strategy, I thought the only way to follow it up was with my contrasting style: lots of ramblings in bullet point form.  It's what I do best, and I have a lot of different thoughts on my mind.  In paragraph form, there would be no rhyme or reason.  Come to think of it, there is no rhyme or reason anyways, but here we go:

-Ricky Romero has to be hurt in some way, shape, or form.  There is just no other way to explain this drop in production.  I know what you are thinking hardcore baseball fan: he pitches in the AL East, what do you expect?  What I expect is that Ricky Romero will be one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball no matter where he's pitching.  He's proven that he is capable of this, regardless of opponent over the last 2 years.  Romero went from a 3.73 ERA with 1.29 WHIP and 174 K in 2010 to 2.92 ERA with 1.14 WHIP and 178 K last year.  I didn't expect it to get much better, but I also didn't expect it to balloon to a 4.94 ERA and 1.43 WHIP after his horrendous outing today (3 innings, 13 runners including 6 BBs, and 8 ER).  I watched him today and he didn't have command of the plate.  He also was only around 91mph.  Bottom line: it didn't look like the stud pitcher I remember from last year and he must be hurt.  The only thing I can recommend is to trade him if someone is still a believer and get 70 cents on the dollar.  I don't see you getting full on Ricky Romero-type production for the remainder of the year, although he can only (I think) go up.

-Sean is wrong about Adam Jones over Trout.  Mike Trout is the best rookie that I remember in a long time.  Especially for fantasy.  The thing that gives Trout an edge over just about anyone else is his phenomenal set of wheels.  He's going to steal 60 bases at some point in his MLB career.  This year, he is on pace for 45 STL with only 458 AB.  Considering he is a lead-off hitter, his current pace projects for over 60 STL in a full year (about 600 ABs for lead off hitters).  Not to mention, he can hit- for average AND power. Trout is on pace for 15 HR and 63 RBI in the same 458 AB pace.  That projects as this for a full season: .335, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 60 STL, 120 R.  How many players are better?  I don't even have to go into Adam Jones' numbers because they're not that.  Period.  Worrying about the rookie wall for a guy who has hit at every level he's been at is ridiculous.

-Jeff Samardzija's ERA is now over 5.  His ERA for the last month: 7.27.....with a 1.81 WHIP!  For everyone who fell in love with him, it's time for the breakup.  I know breakups are hard, but they are for the best.  The kids just not ready for a 35 start season yet.  Needs a year to get his arm stretched out.

-Anthony Davis is going to be the first pick of the NBA Draft.  Scouts are comparing him to Bill Russell already.  He is going to be a fantasy stud no doubt.  I wanted to touch on a few other players that I think will have fantasy relevance NEXT YEAR:
   -Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: Scouts smarter than I are already comparing him to the next Gerald Wallace.  Even if Bradley Beal ends up going #2, he will end up on a very bad team with big minutes lined up.  I see him as a nice scorer in the NBA even though his jump shot is not fully developed.  MKG is an around the rim type scorer with offensive rebounding capabilities.  No doubt, like every rookie, he will struggle a bit in his first year.  His FG% should still be high for a rookie assuming he doesn't start trying to stretch out his game ala Josh Smith.  He is a dirty work kind of player and those numbers translate to fantasy even if he won't be lighting up the scoreboard with 3's.  I expect him to go 2 or 3 in the draft and score about 13ppg with 7 rebounds in his rookie year.
   -Thomas Robinson:  Some say Jared Sullinger is the best post scorer in this draft.  I completely disagree.  Not only does he have diagnosed chronic back problems, but he is unathletic and reminds me too much of Carlos Boozer.  Boozer is a decent scorer, but I think Thomas Robinson can be special.  According to Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA), Thomas Robinson will lead the rookie class in scoring.  Robinson is a definite lottery pick himself, and could go as high as 2.  Bobcats, Wizards, etc can all use the scoring.  He reminds me of an Amare Stoudemire light.  Give you the same categories as Amare with same %'s in a lesser fashion.  He may take a year more than MKG to develop into his full potential, but in keepers I think Robinson is a no-brainer.
   -Austin Rivers: It sounds like Michael Jordan is targeting Rivers with the 10th pick.  Apparently, he sees a fit with Kemba Walker/Rivers guard combo.  Don't forget, Jordan IS the guy who went with Felton/Augustin PG duo for a while.  Also don't forget it killed both their fantasy values.  Rivers, though, is a volume shooter. When he gets the ball, he will definitely shoot.  I can see Rivers leading the rookie class in points.  Should give you a decent amount of 3's, PTs, FT%, STL.  My guess is he will be around 14 ppg depending on what team he ends up on.

The Fountain of Youth

Adds and drops can make the difference between a first place finish and a total dud in terms of fantasy sports. Who would have predicted that Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Laroche, Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Trevor Plouffe would be members of the top 30 home run hitters in the MLB through mid-season? You could also include Carlos Beltran and Adam Dunn as surprises to this list as both seemed to be players that were over the hill, or at least on the decline just a year ago.

Ricky and I have a fundamental difference of opinion on the value of young talent in fantasy leagues. As a short side note- this is why we started writing a blog. Ricky and I can go back and forth for hours arguing the value of different players, even if the difference in opinion is excruciatingly minor. Anyways, this difference came about while discussing the value of young players in non-keeper leagues. Part of our debate started last year when Arod had surgery on his knee. Around the same time, Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals and I was desperate for a 3bman. I had already lost David Wright to injury, and Ricky had rushed to pick up Moustakas (and Rizzo). As Ricky started proposing deals that included these extraordinarily talented prospects, I backed away from the offers. Last year, both Rizzo and Moustakas busted and I was relieved to have avoided those trades. This year, Ricky excitedly rushed to grab Mike Trout, spending 18 of his 100 free agent dollars for the season (and another player in our league held Bryce Harper for the entire first month while he was in AAA). I told Ricky he overpaid for Trout, and thus far I have been stunned by Trout’s success (easily a top 25 hitter right now). So the following question came up on Twitter yesterday… who would you rather have for the rest of this season, Adam Jones or Mike Trout? Ricky says Trout, I say Jones. Not surprisingly, he has Trout, and I have Jones.

There’s all the backstory, here’s my take: Fantasy baseball is all about balance. You don’t draft a team that can only hit homers, you don’t draft a team that only steals, you don’t draft a team that only pitches. The other thing you don’t do is you don’t draft a team that should win 10 categories each week. I try to draft a team that COULD win all 10 categories, but has a great chance at winning 6 or 7. With this balance, you try to get a team that has a minimal chance for injuries, and a team that is full of everyday players. Players that are just coming up often get "babied" into the league and as this is true, they are rested regularly. Strasburg would easily be a top 10 pitcher this season... except that the Nats claim to have a 160 inning cap on him. On top of this regular resting time, most baseball players take time to adjust to major league pitching… for every Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols (examples of players who came into the league and rightfully earned a starting role in their first season, never looking back), there are about 100 examples of players that needed time to adjust, and a zillion of players that we never heard from again. Examples of players who started slow in their first years: Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez to name a few of the most prolific hitters of the last 40 years. Even Ken Griffey Jr. only hit .264 in his first season. someone may come into the league hitting .350 for the first two months, and then totally fall apart. Braun and Pujols are exceptions, not the rule. 

This being said… I shoot for players who are just coming into their own but are clearly established as everyday starters. You will have to pay more to get these guys, but they are lower risk for just as big of a reward. My team is filled with youth, but none of these players are in their first year. For example, I have Adam Jones, Mike Moustakas, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, and recently picked up Ike Davis are all under 26 years old. My other big hitters are under 30 (Pence, Miguel Cabrera, and Pedroia). In fact, the only three hitters that I start who are over 30 are Coco Crisp (just picked him up… good buy low guy), Alexei Ramirez (also good buy low, who I traded for to replace the injured Troy Tulowitzki), and Josh Willingham (who I got as a throw-in on the Alexei trade… look at his numbers… a throw-in??). BUT if I had Trout, Bryce Harper, or Jason Kipnis (along with a number of other players), I’d look to move them for a more established piece. The reasoning here is that I try to sell HYPE in fantasy baseball to upgrade my team. These inexperienced players will have to adjust once pitchers adjust to them. There is some pitch that Bryce Harper or Mike Trout is not proficient at hitting- yet. They will likely adjust, as they are both top notch talents with five tools. Someone will figure this out, and what will make Trout or Harper a stud in the long-run will be the ability to plug holes in their respective swings. Pitchers and hitters have to constantly adjust and the cream of the crop learn to adjust the fastest. I worry that these kids will taper as the year goes on and I think it is likely that you can trade him to acquire someone who will give you more value come late July or August. Another note is that players who are just coming up to the big leagues are also not yet used to playing 162 game seasons (both minor league and college seasons are far shorter) and often see poor results in the late summer due to fatigue or lack of concentration. Notice how I am saying often and usually a lot. I’m wrong plenty in fantasy baseball- and maybe these guys will prove me wrong, but for the most part this is how baseball works. I tend to avoid RELYING on hot prospects… and sometimes I miss out on them big time. But a lot of times, I feel quit happy with the results that I get.

Who do you agree with? What do you like or hate about what I just said?? Which prospects are the real deal, and which will taper?

Other notes- pick up Rickie Weeks, Alexei Ramirez, and Ike Davis if you can. These guys are all starting to produce in a big way and if they continue in this direction, you will miss out.

-Next week I plan on changing my streamer of the day to streamers of the week. I have had a great deal of success streaming pitchers in our weekly league, but I am realizing that doing so on a daily basis can be lethal to your team’s ERA. On a day-to-day basis, streaming is a poor option. But for weekly leagues, you can really do big things.

-Ricky and I plan on coming out with new positional rankings and we want your feedback! Tell us we are brilliant, tell us we are wrong, we want to know what you think.

Quick Notes 6/26

-Anthony Rizzo's loopy swing seems to be a thing of the past.  He has changed the position of the bat since last year and now has a shorter, more concise swing.  Has two base hits to show for it.

-Yadier Molina went into today hitting .319 with 11 HR, 41 RBI, and 7 STL! He finished the night 1/4 with a HR and 3 RBI.  What a year Yadier is having.  Who said he was just a defensive catcher?  Just debated my dad between him and Carlos Ruiz.  I like Molina, he likes Ruiz.  Who would you rather have?

-Albert Pujols' average is now above .260.  I will be shocked if he doesn't eclipse .290.  My guess is he will finish the year at .300.  By the way, he hit a 2-Run HR tonight---his 12th

-From the same game Mark Trumbo had 2 hits one being his 18th homer.  Will this guy hit for average this year ALONG with the power we already know he has?  Came into the day at .316.  Wouldn't be surprised if he finished under .300, but I'm starting to think it may not be that far under.  Over/under .292 for his final batting average?

-Andrew McCutchen is a top 10 hitter.  Entered the day with a .339 average, will leave with an average over .340 with 13 HR, 46 RBI, 14 STL.  Always been a favorite of mine.

-Ian Kinsler is not having an Ian Kinsler type year.  He only had 7 HR coming into the night, but went 2/4 with his 8th.  I would buy low on him right now, and expect him to finish with around 25 when all said and done.

-Erik Bedard's ERA in his last 3 starts now stands at 7.15.  I was a supporter earlier this year, but he is falling apart.  He generally falls behind hitters and doesn't have the swing-and-miss stuff to get out of it.  10 teams dump him, 12 teams wait and see, 14 team bench.

These are my quick notes for the night.  Hope to blog again tomorrow.

Thanks for reading, and as always tweet @fwfantasy or e-mail at foulweatherfantasy@gmail.com

Ricky

What Did Rizzo's Last Stint Mean?

As fantasy sports players, we can all be suckers for top prospects.  Anthony Rizzo has been among the top 30 in baseball for a few years.  Today, we learned that the Cubs will call up Rizzo tomorrow and he will play everyday at first base.  Being the Cubs fan that I am, I am ecstatic.  Big Riz has been deemed the first basemen of the future since the day the Cubs traded Andrew Cashner for him.  I have very very high hopes for the 6'3 220 lb first baseman.  As a fantasy owner, I'm not so sure.

I ran to my waiver wire the last time Rizzo was called up, and was ready for him to rake.  49 games later he was sent down after doing the opposite of raking.  Mind you I know his home park was Petco, but a .141 batting average?  Even Nick Hundley isn't doing that this year (.164 BA), and he can't hit a lick.  Big league pitching proved to be too much.  I watched an interview today that showed Rizzo talking about bad habits he got into his last time up.  He said he watched them during the off-season and felt sick to his stomach.  This year, he's responded hitting a league leading 23 HR with a .343 BA in the Cubs AAA Iowa.  It seems he is ready to take a big step, but I say wait and see.  If you can get a top 10 1B for him, I'd make that move immediately.  The Cubs lineup around him is not going to help.  Currently, the Cubs sit 22nd in BA and 27th in runs scored.  Rizzo will come in and play 1st moving LaHair to the OF.  This will take away Tony Campana's spot in the lineup, which will definitely improve the offense.  Still, this is the Cubbies.  He will probably start out hitting in a non pressure spot such as the 7th spot (as most call ups do not named Bryce Harper).  Theo Epstein has gone on record saying that he doesn't want Rizzo to be the savior.  To me, this means he may remain in the 7th spot for the forseeable future.  This being said, I project Rizzo to be an above average big league hitter the rest of the way.  I think he will probably hit his fair of slumps along the way, but all in all the numbers should be fine.  His stint with the Padres does worry me to the point where I'm not overly excited.  Here is what I think he will produce:
Forecast for 2012: 280 AB, .265 BA, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 30 R

OTHER NOTES:

Robinson Cano has now homered in 6 of his last 8 games.  He is the top 2B in fantasy baseball and probably a top 7 overall player.

Matt Kemp is not expected back until the second half now.  When he gets back, I expect him to pick up right where he left off.

Wade Miley has been the best rookie pitcher this year.  I don't even think he will be the best rookie pitcher on his team by year's end.  I think I would rather have Trevor Bauer from this point on assuming Bauer stays up.  That being said, I think Miley is a pretty decent pitcher.  Should be owned in 12 team leagues.  Not sure about 10 teamers yet.

I MADE A TRADE in one of my leagues.  12 team roto league.  I was heavy on hitting and needed a pitcher with Paulino, Marcum, and Colon DL'd.  I traded Michael Young, Shin-Soo Choo and Vargas (who has been going down the drain) for Michael Bourn and Matt Garza.  I gave up a lot of hitting, but I had Yoenis Cespedes sitting on the bench along with Ryan Howard who is looming.  What do you think of this deal? I obviously gained pitching with Garza, and I liked getting the speed demon in Bourn.  I gave up a lot of average, but I'm hoping Bourn can semi make up for it with an elite average.  What do you think of the deal? Tweet me @fwfantasy, comment below, or e-mail us at foulweatherfantasy@gmail.com with comments.  Would love to hear em.  Thanks for reading as always.

Revisiting Buy Low

While it may seem as though I am jumping the gun by revisiting my buy low players (only wrote the article 10 days ago), fantasy baseball is a game of trends. You need to be constantly reviewing moves and thoughts on players because 10 days can entirely change your perspective on a player. One thing that is important to remember is that you cannot expect EVERY player you project to improve to come through. As I mentioned last time, sometimes you have to just learn to cut ties with a player and move on (aka Adam Dunn last season). First let’s look at the pitchers I highlighted:

Ian Kennedy- In the two starts since I discussed these guys Ian got shelled by the Rangers, and then lost a heart-breaker against LA (2 runs on 6 hits over 8 innings). Keep an eye on him as his WHIP has improved substantially (1.18 over the last month, versus 1.29 for the whole year) and watch as the D-Backs try to catch fire.

Daniel Hudson- on the day I called him a buy low player, he got shelled for 6 runs on 8 hits in just an inning and a two-thirds versus light-hitting Oakland. In his next start, he comes through with 3 runs on 5 hits and 7k’s in 7 innings (and a win) versus Texas. How those two things are possible in consecutive starts is beyond me. I still believe Hudson is worth your time… but let’s continue to watch trends.

Yovani Gallardo- After getting beat up by the Cubs 3 days before I wrote, Gallardo has put up 2 quality starts, allowing 4 runs in 13 innings with 13 hits and 4 walks. His WHIP is still a little high, but Gallardo is starting to come around (8 quality starts in his last 9 apperances)

Matt Garza- Garza has gone 1-1 in his last 2 starts with an ERA of 4.5 and a WHIP of 1.08. He is starting to come around but is still getting beat by challenging hitters at the wrong times. Garza has looked very good over the past 4 starts (settling down from 2 bad starts) and is moving in the right direction.

Adam Wainwright- Wainwright has been stellar in his last 2 starts and the buy low window may be closing. I still worry about his higher-than-usual walk rates, but he seems to be putting it together (14 IP, ERA = 1.93, WHIP=1.07)

Ricky Romero- My patience is wearing down with Romero. I drafted him in March and have watched him struggle with consistency since. He has a 7-1 record (somehow…) but has days where he comes out with no control or simply lobs up meatballs to each hitter. I still hold out hope that he will get back to his 2011 form, but I am not very high on him right now (aka if you were in my league you could probably buy low!)

Josh Johnson- Probably getting late for a buy low as Johnson cashed in another 13 innings with a mere 3 runs since we last discussed him. One problem I have with him is that his WHIP is abnormally high. What made him SO successful in the past was that he was not only unhittable, but he had GREAT control. In his last start, he gave up 8 hits AND had 4 walks in only 6 innings… that is a WHIP of 2. He was lucky to only give up 2 runs and needs to get better in order to be a valuable chip.

Jon Lester- Finally, Lester… he has been above average in his last two starts. Not GREAT, maybe not even GOOD, but above average. He is starting to rack up some strikeouts (17 in 13.2 versus the Cubs and the Nationals), but those are both teams that strike out a lot. Lester has not had control issues (only allowed more than 1 walk in 3 of his last 10 starts, and never more than 3), but I imagine that the poor defense behind him is not helping at all. As the Sox get healthy, Lester should be due for some stat correction (hopefully for his fantasy owners).

How did I do on those hitters?

Michael Young- only 9-48 in his last 2 weeks, but I would still buy him. Even if he is a player that is on the decline (already 35 years old), his numbers will improve. I’d be happy to buy low on Young any day, and you should be too…

Alex Gordon is 17-51 in his last 2 weeks with 12 runs scored and 2 steals, but only 1 hr and 2 rbi. Look for his power numbers and runs driven in to increase, but looks like the window to buy low has likely closed.

Kevin Youkilis- Youk looks like a man distracted by the potential of being traded. The whole Red Sox team looks distraught, and while I wouldn’t necessarily start Youkilis right now, he is still likely to pay some dividends. Be careful with him though… I am less confident in him with each bad plate appearance and each time he is benched.

Ben Zobrist- Too late on him. He is 14-37 in the last 2 weeks with 9 runs scored, 3 homers, 9 rbis, and a steal. Zobrist is a notoriously streaky hitter and you may get another chance if his numbers take another dip, so keep an eye on him. I wouldn’t pay a lot for him due to his streakiness, but if someone is willing to sell him at a bargain don’t flinch.

Howie Kendrick- He is hitting .342 in his last 2 weeks (13-38), but has NO power. I’d buy into him because his power numbers will come around (I think).

Aramis Ramirez- Despite my concerns about his health, Aramis has been coming around recently. He has hit .318 with 3 homers and 8 rbis in the last two weeks and looks like he is feeling good. Grab him if you can, he is one of the best 2^nd half players in baseball.

Ryan Zimmerman- Okay, so far he has been AWFUL in the last 2 weeks. BUT I still think he will come around AND now he should be out of that “superstar” price range. Buy buy buy on him and then bench him until he turns it on.

Rickie Weeks- I am still cautiously optimistic on Weeks. The power numbers are not there… yet, but he has finally started to show some life, going 10 for his last 28 with 2 steals. I have started putting him into my starting lineup, but couldn’t blame anyone for not believing in him. If you watch carefully though, he is starting to figure out what was wrong and could be due for some HUGE numbers this July.

Here’s another name for your list: Ike Davis. Despite his HORRENDOUS start to this year, Davis has finally started to pull his weight, and good news! He is only owned in 29.1% of leagues. For the season, Davis’ batting average still sits below the Mendoza line (.196), but he is hitting .256 over the last month (I know, not AMAZING, but an improvement), .325 over the past 2 weeks, and .435 over the past week with 2 homers and 10 rbis. Maybe Ike can still salvage his season a bit here… I picked him up this week and thoroughly enjoyed his grand slam last night.

I said last time that some catchers are good buy lows… I will stick by saying that Carlos Santana is one of those. He is hitting below .200 since returning from his concussion (8/43), BUT 6 of his 8 hits have come in the past 20 at bats (after going just 2/23 to start). He also has 2 doubles in that stretch, so I expect that he is starting to feel a whole lot better from that concussion and is getting ready to explode.

Miguel Montero has shown some life (3 homers in the past 2 weeks), but each time he starts to get hot, he tapers… quickly. Still worth a roster spot in my eyes (if you have one to burn temporarily), but not worth a starting spot, and don’t drop a player you like to get on Montero. 

Turn to Jacob Turner?

Every fantasy player's dream is to take a shot on a prospect, have him get called up, and immediately have him pay huge dividends.  Mike Trout and Bryce Harper owners know exactly what I am talking about.  Fantasy sports are a game of risk, and everyone seems to love the young guys.  Yesterday the Tigers called up their top pitching prospect Jacob Turner, who is a top 10 prospect in baseball.  What can you expect from him? I'll tell you:

Jacob Turner's call up is a result of Drew Smyly going down.  Smyly has been a nice surprise.  Coming out of essentially nowhere, Smyly sports a 3.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.  His injury is nothing more than a finger blister.  He is eligible to be activated June 25 and fully expects to be ready by then.  It may sound like I'm down on Turner from this, but I certainly am not.  Turner has a 3.43 ERA and 27 K in 42 IP in AAA since being called up after dominating single A.  He probably is not 100% ready yet, but sometimes all a pitcher needs is extra motivation to perform.  This call up shows me that Detroit is willing to dip into their system to help them win this year.  Turner will probably only make this start for Smyly's DL stint, so if you can sell Turner for a solid starter I definitely would.  I wouldn't rule out the possibility if another Detroit starter gets hurt, though, that Turner stays up for the remainder of the year.  The Tigers are three games out of first now. While Turner probably is not fully groomed, he may still hold value at the end of this year.  For the most part, I still consider him to have most value in long term keeper leagues.  Let's see what happens in his start though.  If he throws a big game, crazier things have happened than a team keeping their top prospect in the majors.

ONE OTHER NOTE:

Ryan Cook is now the full time closer for the A's.  The last time I wrote, I said he was their best pitcher in the bullpen.  He should hold that job for the rest of the year.  Try to acquire him and start him with confidence.  Balfour and Fuentes are not MLB closers, and the A's are going nowhere.  Cook is their closer of the future so they will spend the rest of the year grooming him.  I consider him a top-15 closer or so.  For comparison, I value him over Addison Reed and Jonathan Broxton to name a few.

Agree or strongly disagree with what I'm writing?  Tell me @fwfantasy or @rsanders85.  If you prefer e-mail, e-mail us at foulweatherfantasy@gmail.com.  Thanks and good lucky with week 11!

Buy Low?

Most of what I love about sports is that the world of sports is so utterly unpredictable. In baseball, this is especially true. In an 162 game season, with few exceptions, each team will win 50 games and lose 50 games, and what separates the teams at the end of the year is what you can with the last 62. Crazy things happen each year… players can have an amazing season, never to be heard from again. Highly touted rookies/ prospects can (and do) fizzle out. How do you know when to buy a player who has struggled, or to sell a player who’s numbers are unusually high? Is the first type of player just in a prolonged slump, ready to bust out, or just not coming back this year?

Before we start here… Adam Dunn changed things for me last year. When one of the most consistent (notice how I did not say “best”) hitters in the game, suddenly falls flat to the tune of the worst season in MLB history in just one season it underscores the unpredictable nature of baseball. We all thought Dunn would come back to his career numbers (because everyone does always, right?), instead he continued to slip into the abyss. Dunn did come back… this year, but that’s no help for those of us that drafted him last year. Now instead of assuming people will return to their averages, we all need to be a bit more cautious.

This being said… Prime buy low candidates:

Pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Adam Wainwright, Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson, and Jon Lester.

Each pitcher on this list was considered a stud (or at least very good) as of last year (exception is Wainwright who was out with Tommy John, Johnson was considered a stud EVEN WITH HIS INJURY), yet at this point some people see them as expendable. They are all young, but established pitchers (oldest is Wainwright at 31, youngest is Gallardo at 26), most of which are the #1 pitcher on their team. I believe they are all worth a roster spot and would buy them in a trade (remember my philosophy though… don’t sell much hitting for pitchers, we are talking about trading other pitchers and minor hitters).

Many pitchers take about 18 months to get back from Tommy John fully… and I expect that within the next month, Wainwright will come into his own. Having watched him destroy the Cubs plenty of times, I am well aware of the fact that Adam Wainwright is capable of being the best in the bigs. You can read elsewhere to see if his velocity is down, but I strongly believe that he is a very smart pitcher with an excellent arsenal of pitches and good control. (Also, based on this chart http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2233&position=P&pitch=FA from FanGraphs, you can tell that his velocity is about where it was (maybe slightly less) in 2010 when he was 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA in 230 innings.) Johnson is slightly more of a risk because his “shoulder strain” was more of an enigma. His fastball velocity is also SLIGHTLY down, but it looks like he is trying to incorporate a cutter more and more. Despite the concerns of some… I still expect both to produce at a high enough level where they will be assets come July and August when some of our “sell high” pitchers begin to fall off the map.

I also expect Daniel Hudson to produce at a high level. He had a bad start, got injured and has been very good since returning. I would buy him if possible.

3 of the other pitchers on my list (Gallardo, Garza, and Romero) have had OK seasons, but not great. Each has shown flashes of brilliance, mixed with some very mediocre, or even terrible starts. Garza has been excellent, except for 3 starts, where he totally imploded. I think he is a bit of a head case at the moment. Garza is an extremely talented pitcher… but when his starts can be derailed by very small things…. A bad play on defense, a non-strike call from an ump… Garza will likely be traded to a contending team come August, and in that case I think he will be much more successful. Even as a Cub, Garza has clear benefits for strikeouts, whip, and ERA, even if he is prone to a bad game here or there and he is not likely to pull in wins. Also… Garza has had next to the same velocity on his fastballs throughout his time as a Cub (between 93 and 94 mph).

Gallardo has had similar issues, except it seems more like every other start that he has blown up… one concern is that his fastball is down 1 mph and his changeup is 1 mph faster. There is only a 5-mile per hour difference between the two now, versus 7mph last year. This could be enough to skew his stat line a little, but I think Gallardo is simply a strong young pitcher that is prone to some blow out games. His highs are as high as they go, but his lows can be frustrating. This being said, I think he is a great mid-season grab and due for some stat correction.

Romero meanwhile has had control issues… his fastball is down a little bit in velocity, but his the difference between his fastball and change up has actually increased as he dropped a couple of mph off the change up velocity. In one of his starts he walked 7, which is just inexcusable. He is throwing less fastballs, while more changes and cutters, which could account for some of the control issues. I would expect his numbers to turn around in a big way soon, especially if he can get the walks down. All-in-all I expect all three to be a good bet more often then not and I think their ERAs will come down.

The other two, Lester and Kennedy have had subpar numbers.

I’m not sure what to read into about either of them. Expect Lester to get better fast. The only difference in his stats is that he is throwing more sinkers. Sinker pitchers can have really bad games, but once they learn to just keep the ball down, they have tremendous success. Lester’s changeup got faster, which is not good, the more it looks like the fastball, the less effective it will be, but realistically expect his numbers to shift dramatically soon. As Lester shifts to the sinker though, his value could diminish in k’s. Some sinker pitchers still rack up lots of strikeouts, but others just pitch for groundballs… that’ll be something to keep an eye on from here on out.

Kennedy has been giving up an alarming number of hits. The bulk of his pitches this year have been two-seam fastballs, which may explain some of the changes in stats, but realistically I don’t know what his problem is right now. He has had a couple of great starts in a row and maybe that is a sign of things to come… I would buy him, but with a somewhat skeptical eye.

Hitters: Honestly, if you can steal any of the premiere hitters in your league, do not hesitate. I’d take Upton, Agon, Tulo, Cano, Pujols, or Longoria in a heartbeat. They would all still cost you a pretty penny because of their names, but some people have lost hope on those guys or want to jump off their bandwagons… and if they do, seize the opportunity.

Other guys that are more attainable and likely to attain higher stats include Alex Gordon, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Howie Kendrick, Ben Zobrist, and potentially Aramis Ramirez/ Ryan Zimmerman. I always worry about Aramis’ injury prone hamstrings and I think Zimmerman will still cost “superstar” type talent in a trade, where he may not be that valuable anymore… but he is due for some stat correction. The others though, are performing below their capabilities and are in the prime of their careers (aside from Michael Young, who is not that young anymore… no pun intended) and I believe they will boost their performances. I also think that there are a number of strong catching options prime for picking if you are interested. Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, and Alex Avila have all produced below their level of expected production this year, and I am confident that Santana and Montero will boost their production. Avila’s injury is a little concerning… I really hate hamstring injuries because I know from experience that they just don’t go away.

The last guy on the list is Rickie Weeks. I will still buy him (in fact, I just did). After watching a few at bats versus the Cubs, I really think he is getting unlucky. He has a very low BABIP and he is squaring the ball up. As you can read anywhere else, his strikeout rates are up a little bit, but he is making good hard contact and taking a fair amount of walks. He is talented enough that I think he will redeem himself. He may not totally climb out of his hole (it is REALLY deep with a .160 batting average), but watch for him in the coming weeks. If he hasn’t produced within the next 3 weeks though I will give up on him.

This post got really long, so look backsoon for something on selling high.

What's Up with Upton?

Sometimes you write things and then immediately everything you just said sounds stupid.  Yesterday, I had that happen to me.  Yesterday I blogged about how Sergio Romo should remain the closer, and that Aroldis Chapman was the best closer in baseball.  Well yesterday Santiago Casilla came back and got the save and Aroldis gave up his first run of the year.  I am still going sticking to my guns for both statements.  Before the game yesterday, Bochy told reporters that he wasn't using Romo because he was battling knee soreness.  I think they are figuring out that Romo is the better pitcher.  We will find out who really is the closer during the next save chance.  Also, Aroldis will be fine.  He wasn't going to go all year without allowing a run.  He is still AN ABSOLUTE STUD.

Now, onto today's topic: Justin Upton.  I am kicking myself because in one draft, my decision in the 2nd round was between Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, and Upton.  I love both of the other hitters, but got caught up in the Upton hype.  Carlos Gonzalez is now arguably the best fantasy player around, and Granderson is amidst another great year.  Upton, on the other hand, has been borderline unbearable.  He had a terrible April, finishing with a .242 AVG, 2 HR, 5 RBI.  He stepped it up a little in May driving in 15 runs.  I thought he was turning it around, but then came another long slump............one that he is still stuck in.  Now, Kirk Gibson has sat Upton for two straight games to get him going again.  In June, Upton is 1/12.  I've been watching.  He just doesn't seem to have confidence.  He is swinging at pitches all over the place and walking away with his head down.  While you have to think a young guy coming off a career year will have to get better, sometimes slumps just last a whole summer.  Look at Adam Dunn last year.  While we aren't even 1/3 of the way yet, I still have worries about Upton.  He's still only a guy who's hit over 20 HR twice.  He's never driven in 100.  He's not as proven as I hoped when I drafted him. He was suffering from wrist issues earlier in the year, and I fear that they have not gone away. If you can get a top player for him, I think I would do it.  I think I prefer a hitter like Kipnis, Kinsler, Beltre to him where preseason I never would have said so.  Upton is still a very solid fantasy player, but from this point forward I don't consider him much more than a top 25 fantasy hitter.

Other notes:

Clay Buchholz threw a CG SHO yesterday. His ERA is still 5.76 with a 1.58 ERA. While he has some talent, I still believe he was just a one year wonder.  He may give you one of these every once in a while, but I believe he isn't even an option in mixed leagues.  I would much rather own Jason Hammel, Wei-Yen Chen, and even Big Fat Bartolo Colon than a guy like Buchholz.  At least you can stream Colon at home in a favorable ballpark.

Ryan Zimmerman has been non-existent this year.  While I would take him for the right price, he is another guy I worry about.  If someone was looking to sell Edwin Encarnacion high, I would make that 1 for 1 in a heartbeat now.  Zimmerman may figure it out, but it doesn't look like its going to be anytime soon.

R.A. Dickey is a top 30 pitcher.  Maybe higher.  Still scares me just a little because knuckle ballers can get hammered on any given night.  His "any given nights" have been few and far between lately.

Alexi Ogando is starting Sunday in place of the injured Derek Holland.  If you have a dead spot, I'd pick him up and take the shot that he stays in the rotation.  Had solid success in that role in 2011.

Sergio Romo finally in spot he deserves

Fear the Beard.  That has been Brian Wilson's trademark for a few years now, and for good reason.  He had a string of 36+ saves in 4 straight years going into this year.  Two of those years were 40+ saves, the best being 48 in 2010.  With him on the DL, though, there is a new beard in town (well, in the closer role).  SERGIO ROMO.  I put this name in caps because I think it's a name that fantasy owners need to know.  Put it in the ol' memory bank.  This guy has quietly been one of the best FIVE relievers in baseball the last 2 years.  In 110 combined innings in 2010 and 2011, he walked a combined 19 hitters (or a 1.55 BB/9).  In the same span, he struck out 140 hitters.  This guys career ERA and WHIP are 2.18 and 0.89.  Yet for some reason, when the Wilson news came out, Bruce Bochy turned to Santiago Casilla first.  Usually my strategy is to go for the best reliever on the team, and things will work themselves out.  In this case, that strategy has worked because I believe Romo is pulling away with this job.  Romo has been seeing save chances since Santiago Casilla went down with a knee injury.  Since then he has gone 3 for 3 in save chances and has given up 0 baserunners in the 2 innings of work.  Folks, I think if he is not owned in your league that you must go out and get him.  He can be a top 5 closer the rest of the way if he holds onto the job.

Speaking of dominant closers: Aroldis Chapman is the best closer in baseball.  Not Craig Kimbrel, not Kenley Jensen, not anyone else you can name.  Aroldis Chapman is the true definition of lights out. 29 IP, 0 ER, 0.55 WHIP, 52 K.  There's no reason his dominance should not continue.  He is a lefty who throws 99 with a NASTY slider and has found his control.  He has walked 9 batters all year.  If anyone thinks your closer is better than Chapman, make a 1 for 1 trade now.  If you can get Chapman by giving up a slight edge elsewhere, make the trade.  This guy will help your ERA and WHIP like no other reliever, while giving you starting pitcher type strikeouts.

Other notes:

James McDonald is for real.  I consider him a top 15 SP for the rest of the year. The most ER he has given up in a start this year is 3 (has done that 3x, only once since April).  ERA by month: April - 2.97, May - 1.54, June -1.50.  He's getting better with experience. Another very solid strikeout pitcher who just had to put it all together.

Buy Aramis Ramirez.  He was just getting hot when he hurt his hamstring.  The injury is minor, and he is listed as day-to-day.  Make the move to get him while his value is low, because this is the time of year he heats up.

Adrian Gonzalez looks lost at the plate.  If baseball teaches you anything though, it is that all things tend to even out.  Pujols started off awful and then just went on a tear for his next 10 games.  Sure he is 0-fer in June again, but great hitters go through cold streaks.  We are not even 1/3 of the way yet.  By the end of the year numbers will be there.  That being said, I say go out and get Adrian Gonzalez.  You will probably get another 1-3 weeks of poor hitting, but when he figures it out he will be Adrian Gonzalez once again.

Jimmy Rollins is hitting .307 in his last 7.

Scott Hairston is one of the hottest hitters in baseball?  Need a boost in daily leagues? Ride it while the goings good.

Ian Kinsler has 1 HR in the last 30 days.  That won't continue.  Get him.

Ryan Dempster is no longer winless.  Cliff Lee is.  Lance Lynn has 8 wins.  Jason Hammel has 6.  Wins are impossible to guess, don't take them into much consideration when trading for a pitcher.  They are random combinations of pitching performance, defense, and relievers performance.

To trade or not to trade?

Baseball is a sport of peaks and valleys, and because of this, it is critical to be able to evaluate your team objectively. While a solid draft is critical to a team’s success, it is highly unlikely that you will have a perfect draft. With this being said, free agency pick-ups and trades are just as important as the draft. You need to be able to recognize when a player you have is playing above or below his potential and you need to be opportunistic. Some players start off the year well and then see their stats tail off as the year goes on, while others start off slow and catch fire. In an ideal world, you want to get as many consistently good players as possible. I always worry about the rookie who begins hot, because usually the second or third time through the league teams begin to figure him out (rookie pitchers are notorious for this because they are also adjusting to throwing more than 150 innings for the first time ever too). Another concern is the veteran who is know as a perennial slow starter because no one knows if he is finally seeing a regression in his stat line, or if this is a typical slow start for him (aka Aramis Ramirez).

So when do you buy low/sell high? Before I answer this question, I’ll give you an idea of my philosophy on trades. I have two main principles:

#1. I always argue that you should trade pitching for hitting if possible. As you can tell from my recent streaming picks, sometimes streaming pitchers can be risky, but for the most part it is a much better strategy than trying to piece together a decent hitting lineup on a weekly basis. Consistent hitting is the hardest thing to find and there is no replacement for having totally solid players in your lineup. Position players can give you stats on a daily basis, where the most you will get from a pitcher is 2 good starts or maybe 4 or 5 saves. If you lose a week because Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Kemp, Tulo, Cargo, Agon, etc. have a bad week, that is too bad, but you know that they will boost your team more often than hurting it. It is also easier to swallow than if you lose a week because you had to start Alberto Callaspo at 3^rd base because you drafted incredible pitching. Even the best pitchers have bad starts and can cost you a week here or there. Look at how frustrated some people must be after drafting Halladay, Weaver, or Lincecum. Long story short, I want good hitters over good pitchers any day.

#2. Avoid mismatched trades where you trade a stud for “depth.” I hate trading 2 players for 3, or 1 for 2… unless I feel like the person I am trading with has made a big error in judgment… which we will get to in a minute. 2-3 or 1-2 trades are risky, but if you are only slightly downgrading, it may be worthwhile… depending on where the risk lies. This year, I traded Justin Upton and Matt Latos for Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Justin Masterson. I saw McCutchen as a slight downgrade from Upton, and Heyward as another solid option in the OF, while I didn’t project LAtos or Masterson to be big factors in the trade. Last year, Ricky traded McCutchen for Brandon Phillips and Yovani Gallardo. Again, the downgrade from McCutchen to Phillips was not huge, while he picked up a very solid starter. Normally if you trade 2 players for 3, you are giving up the better players and getting worse players but more of them. Now the exception here ties into the whole “buy low/ sell high” concept: If you have a player that you do not think will maintain his stats and can trade for a player that you think is more consistent or underperforming, you could get an absolute steal. If you have the opportunity to do the reverse… trade 3 players for 2, or 2 for one, make sure you are getting someone of very good value, but usually those trades favor the person getting an extra player. If you can make it seem like a pitcher is a “big part” of the trade, you may be able to negotiate for a better hitter 2^nd hitter. It is hard to talk about these trades without using any examples, but each player is valuable in different ways to teams in different leagues based on what stats you use, whether you are in a head-to-head league or roto, and what you can get for him from other teams. Some people value certain players in weird ways… Ricky had someone try to tell him that Prince Fielder was better than Pujols. If you have any specific trade questions or want help with anything, email us or tweet us and we will gladly give our advice.

Check back later for a post on some players I see as good buy low or sell high options. 

Baseball Update 6/1

Happy day before my birthday!

The biggest piece of news that I wanted to comment on today was the activation of Allen Craig.  I have owned Allen Craig all year in a 12 team mixed league, and strongly encourage all in those type of leagues to add him if he was dropped.  Even in 10 team leagues.  Since the beginning of Spring, Allen Craig has hit.  He is a man without a position essentially, and still he has hit his way into the everyday lineup.  There are talks now about him becoming the everyday 2B for the Cardinals with Skup Schumaker out.  Let's see, if Allen Craig qualified at 2B, which guys would I rank higher?

Robinson Cano
Ian Kinsler
Brandon Phillips
Jason Kipnis
(Pedroia is out for a month, but if healthy, he's clearly on this list too)

The rest of the 2B are toss-ups.  A healthy Allen Craig or Dan Uggla?  Craig will hit for a higher average and hits in a better lineup.  Ben Zobrist has been struggling all year long although he holds 20/20+ potential.  That too is a toss up.  If Cuddyer qualifies at 2B in your league, he and Craig would be a tough decision.  Basically, this shows you what kind of hitter I think Allen Craig can be in the middle of that lineup. The key will be health for Craig.  Even if he remains in the outfield, he will be a viable option in 10 team mixed leagues and up.

OTHER THINGS I WANTED TO TOUCH ON:

Mike Stanton in the month of May: .343, 12 HR, 30 RBI.  I think the homers and RBI potential are legit, but I'll eat my shoe if he hits .300 this year.  That being said, I think now would be a perfect sell high opportunity.  Stanton is a legit talent there's no question.  I would not be surprised if he leads the MLB in HR.  I think if you have the opportunity though, you can get an elite package.  I don't think Stanton will steal many bases even though he stole 2 in the month of May.  If someone is willing to give CarGo, Braun, etc, I think I would most definitely pull the trigger.  I see Stanton for the rest of the year on the pace of a guy who hits .275, 35-40 HR, 95-100 RBI.  Very very good, but not quite elite.

For those who wanted OF eligibility for Adrian Gonzalez, I don't think it's going to happen.  The Gonzalez OF experiment is probably over.  Gonzalez blew a game the other day by dropping a ball that hit him in the belly.  Yesterday, he was back at first. I see this continuing because now Dustin Pedroia is hurt.  What does that have to do with RF?  Bobby V's insanity continued by having Will Middlebrooks take grounders at short before the Red Sox/Tiger game yesterday.  Apparently, his plan going forward will be:

1B Gonzalez
2B Aviles
SS Middlebrooks
3B Youkilis

That is, of course, if Pedroia misses a month as expected.  Apparently, seeing Gonzalez in RF wasn't enough for Bobby to learn that defense and pitching win games in the major leagues.  So he's going to go with playing other guys out of position at least until it falters.


That's all I got for today.  Again, would love to hear your input.  Agree with me? Strongly disagree? Hate every word I said?  Let me know.  Thanks.