Buy Low?

Most of what I love about sports is that the world of sports is so utterly unpredictable. In baseball, this is especially true. In an 162 game season, with few exceptions, each team will win 50 games and lose 50 games, and what separates the teams at the end of the year is what you can with the last 62. Crazy things happen each year… players can have an amazing season, never to be heard from again. Highly touted rookies/ prospects can (and do) fizzle out. How do you know when to buy a player who has struggled, or to sell a player who’s numbers are unusually high? Is the first type of player just in a prolonged slump, ready to bust out, or just not coming back this year?

Before we start here… Adam Dunn changed things for me last year. When one of the most consistent (notice how I did not say “best”) hitters in the game, suddenly falls flat to the tune of the worst season in MLB history in just one season it underscores the unpredictable nature of baseball. We all thought Dunn would come back to his career numbers (because everyone does always, right?), instead he continued to slip into the abyss. Dunn did come back… this year, but that’s no help for those of us that drafted him last year. Now instead of assuming people will return to their averages, we all need to be a bit more cautious.

This being said… Prime buy low candidates:

Pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Adam Wainwright, Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson, and Jon Lester.

Each pitcher on this list was considered a stud (or at least very good) as of last year (exception is Wainwright who was out with Tommy John, Johnson was considered a stud EVEN WITH HIS INJURY), yet at this point some people see them as expendable. They are all young, but established pitchers (oldest is Wainwright at 31, youngest is Gallardo at 26), most of which are the #1 pitcher on their team. I believe they are all worth a roster spot and would buy them in a trade (remember my philosophy though… don’t sell much hitting for pitchers, we are talking about trading other pitchers and minor hitters).

Many pitchers take about 18 months to get back from Tommy John fully… and I expect that within the next month, Wainwright will come into his own. Having watched him destroy the Cubs plenty of times, I am well aware of the fact that Adam Wainwright is capable of being the best in the bigs. You can read elsewhere to see if his velocity is down, but I strongly believe that he is a very smart pitcher with an excellent arsenal of pitches and good control. (Also, based on this chart http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2233&position=P&pitch=FA from FanGraphs, you can tell that his velocity is about where it was (maybe slightly less) in 2010 when he was 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA in 230 innings.) Johnson is slightly more of a risk because his “shoulder strain” was more of an enigma. His fastball velocity is also SLIGHTLY down, but it looks like he is trying to incorporate a cutter more and more. Despite the concerns of some… I still expect both to produce at a high enough level where they will be assets come July and August when some of our “sell high” pitchers begin to fall off the map.

I also expect Daniel Hudson to produce at a high level. He had a bad start, got injured and has been very good since returning. I would buy him if possible.

3 of the other pitchers on my list (Gallardo, Garza, and Romero) have had OK seasons, but not great. Each has shown flashes of brilliance, mixed with some very mediocre, or even terrible starts. Garza has been excellent, except for 3 starts, where he totally imploded. I think he is a bit of a head case at the moment. Garza is an extremely talented pitcher… but when his starts can be derailed by very small things…. A bad play on defense, a non-strike call from an ump… Garza will likely be traded to a contending team come August, and in that case I think he will be much more successful. Even as a Cub, Garza has clear benefits for strikeouts, whip, and ERA, even if he is prone to a bad game here or there and he is not likely to pull in wins. Also… Garza has had next to the same velocity on his fastballs throughout his time as a Cub (between 93 and 94 mph).

Gallardo has had similar issues, except it seems more like every other start that he has blown up… one concern is that his fastball is down 1 mph and his changeup is 1 mph faster. There is only a 5-mile per hour difference between the two now, versus 7mph last year. This could be enough to skew his stat line a little, but I think Gallardo is simply a strong young pitcher that is prone to some blow out games. His highs are as high as they go, but his lows can be frustrating. This being said, I think he is a great mid-season grab and due for some stat correction.

Romero meanwhile has had control issues… his fastball is down a little bit in velocity, but his the difference between his fastball and change up has actually increased as he dropped a couple of mph off the change up velocity. In one of his starts he walked 7, which is just inexcusable. He is throwing less fastballs, while more changes and cutters, which could account for some of the control issues. I would expect his numbers to turn around in a big way soon, especially if he can get the walks down. All-in-all I expect all three to be a good bet more often then not and I think their ERAs will come down.

The other two, Lester and Kennedy have had subpar numbers.

I’m not sure what to read into about either of them. Expect Lester to get better fast. The only difference in his stats is that he is throwing more sinkers. Sinker pitchers can have really bad games, but once they learn to just keep the ball down, they have tremendous success. Lester’s changeup got faster, which is not good, the more it looks like the fastball, the less effective it will be, but realistically expect his numbers to shift dramatically soon. As Lester shifts to the sinker though, his value could diminish in k’s. Some sinker pitchers still rack up lots of strikeouts, but others just pitch for groundballs… that’ll be something to keep an eye on from here on out.

Kennedy has been giving up an alarming number of hits. The bulk of his pitches this year have been two-seam fastballs, which may explain some of the changes in stats, but realistically I don’t know what his problem is right now. He has had a couple of great starts in a row and maybe that is a sign of things to come… I would buy him, but with a somewhat skeptical eye.

Hitters: Honestly, if you can steal any of the premiere hitters in your league, do not hesitate. I’d take Upton, Agon, Tulo, Cano, Pujols, or Longoria in a heartbeat. They would all still cost you a pretty penny because of their names, but some people have lost hope on those guys or want to jump off their bandwagons… and if they do, seize the opportunity.

Other guys that are more attainable and likely to attain higher stats include Alex Gordon, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Howie Kendrick, Ben Zobrist, and potentially Aramis Ramirez/ Ryan Zimmerman. I always worry about Aramis’ injury prone hamstrings and I think Zimmerman will still cost “superstar” type talent in a trade, where he may not be that valuable anymore… but he is due for some stat correction. The others though, are performing below their capabilities and are in the prime of their careers (aside from Michael Young, who is not that young anymore… no pun intended) and I believe they will boost their performances. I also think that there are a number of strong catching options prime for picking if you are interested. Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, and Alex Avila have all produced below their level of expected production this year, and I am confident that Santana and Montero will boost their production. Avila’s injury is a little concerning… I really hate hamstring injuries because I know from experience that they just don’t go away.

The last guy on the list is Rickie Weeks. I will still buy him (in fact, I just did). After watching a few at bats versus the Cubs, I really think he is getting unlucky. He has a very low BABIP and he is squaring the ball up. As you can read anywhere else, his strikeout rates are up a little bit, but he is making good hard contact and taking a fair amount of walks. He is talented enough that I think he will redeem himself. He may not totally climb out of his hole (it is REALLY deep with a .160 batting average), but watch for him in the coming weeks. If he hasn’t produced within the next 3 weeks though I will give up on him.

This post got really long, so look backsoon for something on selling high.