The Fountain of Youth

Adds and drops can make the difference between a first place finish and a total dud in terms of fantasy sports. Who would have predicted that Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Laroche, Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Trevor Plouffe would be members of the top 30 home run hitters in the MLB through mid-season? You could also include Carlos Beltran and Adam Dunn as surprises to this list as both seemed to be players that were over the hill, or at least on the decline just a year ago.

Ricky and I have a fundamental difference of opinion on the value of young talent in fantasy leagues. As a short side note- this is why we started writing a blog. Ricky and I can go back and forth for hours arguing the value of different players, even if the difference in opinion is excruciatingly minor. Anyways, this difference came about while discussing the value of young players in non-keeper leagues. Part of our debate started last year when Arod had surgery on his knee. Around the same time, Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals and I was desperate for a 3bman. I had already lost David Wright to injury, and Ricky had rushed to pick up Moustakas (and Rizzo). As Ricky started proposing deals that included these extraordinarily talented prospects, I backed away from the offers. Last year, both Rizzo and Moustakas busted and I was relieved to have avoided those trades. This year, Ricky excitedly rushed to grab Mike Trout, spending 18 of his 100 free agent dollars for the season (and another player in our league held Bryce Harper for the entire first month while he was in AAA). I told Ricky he overpaid for Trout, and thus far I have been stunned by Trout’s success (easily a top 25 hitter right now). So the following question came up on Twitter yesterday… who would you rather have for the rest of this season, Adam Jones or Mike Trout? Ricky says Trout, I say Jones. Not surprisingly, he has Trout, and I have Jones.

There’s all the backstory, here’s my take: Fantasy baseball is all about balance. You don’t draft a team that can only hit homers, you don’t draft a team that only steals, you don’t draft a team that only pitches. The other thing you don’t do is you don’t draft a team that should win 10 categories each week. I try to draft a team that COULD win all 10 categories, but has a great chance at winning 6 or 7. With this balance, you try to get a team that has a minimal chance for injuries, and a team that is full of everyday players. Players that are just coming up often get "babied" into the league and as this is true, they are rested regularly. Strasburg would easily be a top 10 pitcher this season... except that the Nats claim to have a 160 inning cap on him. On top of this regular resting time, most baseball players take time to adjust to major league pitching… for every Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols (examples of players who came into the league and rightfully earned a starting role in their first season, never looking back), there are about 100 examples of players that needed time to adjust, and a zillion of players that we never heard from again. Examples of players who started slow in their first years: Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez to name a few of the most prolific hitters of the last 40 years. Even Ken Griffey Jr. only hit .264 in his first season. someone may come into the league hitting .350 for the first two months, and then totally fall apart. Braun and Pujols are exceptions, not the rule. 

This being said… I shoot for players who are just coming into their own but are clearly established as everyday starters. You will have to pay more to get these guys, but they are lower risk for just as big of a reward. My team is filled with youth, but none of these players are in their first year. For example, I have Adam Jones, Mike Moustakas, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, and recently picked up Ike Davis are all under 26 years old. My other big hitters are under 30 (Pence, Miguel Cabrera, and Pedroia). In fact, the only three hitters that I start who are over 30 are Coco Crisp (just picked him up… good buy low guy), Alexei Ramirez (also good buy low, who I traded for to replace the injured Troy Tulowitzki), and Josh Willingham (who I got as a throw-in on the Alexei trade… look at his numbers… a throw-in??). BUT if I had Trout, Bryce Harper, or Jason Kipnis (along with a number of other players), I’d look to move them for a more established piece. The reasoning here is that I try to sell HYPE in fantasy baseball to upgrade my team. These inexperienced players will have to adjust once pitchers adjust to them. There is some pitch that Bryce Harper or Mike Trout is not proficient at hitting- yet. They will likely adjust, as they are both top notch talents with five tools. Someone will figure this out, and what will make Trout or Harper a stud in the long-run will be the ability to plug holes in their respective swings. Pitchers and hitters have to constantly adjust and the cream of the crop learn to adjust the fastest. I worry that these kids will taper as the year goes on and I think it is likely that you can trade him to acquire someone who will give you more value come late July or August. Another note is that players who are just coming up to the big leagues are also not yet used to playing 162 game seasons (both minor league and college seasons are far shorter) and often see poor results in the late summer due to fatigue or lack of concentration. Notice how I am saying often and usually a lot. I’m wrong plenty in fantasy baseball- and maybe these guys will prove me wrong, but for the most part this is how baseball works. I tend to avoid RELYING on hot prospects… and sometimes I miss out on them big time. But a lot of times, I feel quit happy with the results that I get.

Who do you agree with? What do you like or hate about what I just said?? Which prospects are the real deal, and which will taper?

Other notes- pick up Rickie Weeks, Alexei Ramirez, and Ike Davis if you can. These guys are all starting to produce in a big way and if they continue in this direction, you will miss out.

-Next week I plan on changing my streamer of the day to streamers of the week. I have had a great deal of success streaming pitchers in our weekly league, but I am realizing that doing so on a daily basis can be lethal to your team’s ERA. On a day-to-day basis, streaming is a poor option. But for weekly leagues, you can really do big things.

-Ricky and I plan on coming out with new positional rankings and we want your feedback! Tell us we are brilliant, tell us we are wrong, we want to know what you think.