To trade or not to trade?

Baseball is a sport of peaks and valleys, and because of this, it is critical to be able to evaluate your team objectively. While a solid draft is critical to a team’s success, it is highly unlikely that you will have a perfect draft. With this being said, free agency pick-ups and trades are just as important as the draft. You need to be able to recognize when a player you have is playing above or below his potential and you need to be opportunistic. Some players start off the year well and then see their stats tail off as the year goes on, while others start off slow and catch fire. In an ideal world, you want to get as many consistently good players as possible. I always worry about the rookie who begins hot, because usually the second or third time through the league teams begin to figure him out (rookie pitchers are notorious for this because they are also adjusting to throwing more than 150 innings for the first time ever too). Another concern is the veteran who is know as a perennial slow starter because no one knows if he is finally seeing a regression in his stat line, or if this is a typical slow start for him (aka Aramis Ramirez).

So when do you buy low/sell high? Before I answer this question, I’ll give you an idea of my philosophy on trades. I have two main principles:

#1. I always argue that you should trade pitching for hitting if possible. As you can tell from my recent streaming picks, sometimes streaming pitchers can be risky, but for the most part it is a much better strategy than trying to piece together a decent hitting lineup on a weekly basis. Consistent hitting is the hardest thing to find and there is no replacement for having totally solid players in your lineup. Position players can give you stats on a daily basis, where the most you will get from a pitcher is 2 good starts or maybe 4 or 5 saves. If you lose a week because Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Kemp, Tulo, Cargo, Agon, etc. have a bad week, that is too bad, but you know that they will boost your team more often than hurting it. It is also easier to swallow than if you lose a week because you had to start Alberto Callaspo at 3^rd base because you drafted incredible pitching. Even the best pitchers have bad starts and can cost you a week here or there. Look at how frustrated some people must be after drafting Halladay, Weaver, or Lincecum. Long story short, I want good hitters over good pitchers any day.

#2. Avoid mismatched trades where you trade a stud for “depth.” I hate trading 2 players for 3, or 1 for 2… unless I feel like the person I am trading with has made a big error in judgment… which we will get to in a minute. 2-3 or 1-2 trades are risky, but if you are only slightly downgrading, it may be worthwhile… depending on where the risk lies. This year, I traded Justin Upton and Matt Latos for Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Justin Masterson. I saw McCutchen as a slight downgrade from Upton, and Heyward as another solid option in the OF, while I didn’t project LAtos or Masterson to be big factors in the trade. Last year, Ricky traded McCutchen for Brandon Phillips and Yovani Gallardo. Again, the downgrade from McCutchen to Phillips was not huge, while he picked up a very solid starter. Normally if you trade 2 players for 3, you are giving up the better players and getting worse players but more of them. Now the exception here ties into the whole “buy low/ sell high” concept: If you have a player that you do not think will maintain his stats and can trade for a player that you think is more consistent or underperforming, you could get an absolute steal. If you have the opportunity to do the reverse… trade 3 players for 2, or 2 for one, make sure you are getting someone of very good value, but usually those trades favor the person getting an extra player. If you can make it seem like a pitcher is a “big part” of the trade, you may be able to negotiate for a better hitter 2^nd hitter. It is hard to talk about these trades without using any examples, but each player is valuable in different ways to teams in different leagues based on what stats you use, whether you are in a head-to-head league or roto, and what you can get for him from other teams. Some people value certain players in weird ways… Ricky had someone try to tell him that Prince Fielder was better than Pujols. If you have any specific trade questions or want help with anything, email us or tweet us and we will gladly give our advice.

Check back later for a post on some players I see as good buy low or sell high options.