Revisiting Buy Low

While it may seem as though I am jumping the gun by revisiting my buy low players (only wrote the article 10 days ago), fantasy baseball is a game of trends. You need to be constantly reviewing moves and thoughts on players because 10 days can entirely change your perspective on a player. One thing that is important to remember is that you cannot expect EVERY player you project to improve to come through. As I mentioned last time, sometimes you have to just learn to cut ties with a player and move on (aka Adam Dunn last season). First let’s look at the pitchers I highlighted:

Ian Kennedy- In the two starts since I discussed these guys Ian got shelled by the Rangers, and then lost a heart-breaker against LA (2 runs on 6 hits over 8 innings). Keep an eye on him as his WHIP has improved substantially (1.18 over the last month, versus 1.29 for the whole year) and watch as the D-Backs try to catch fire.

Daniel Hudson- on the day I called him a buy low player, he got shelled for 6 runs on 8 hits in just an inning and a two-thirds versus light-hitting Oakland. In his next start, he comes through with 3 runs on 5 hits and 7k’s in 7 innings (and a win) versus Texas. How those two things are possible in consecutive starts is beyond me. I still believe Hudson is worth your time… but let’s continue to watch trends.

Yovani Gallardo- After getting beat up by the Cubs 3 days before I wrote, Gallardo has put up 2 quality starts, allowing 4 runs in 13 innings with 13 hits and 4 walks. His WHIP is still a little high, but Gallardo is starting to come around (8 quality starts in his last 9 apperances)

Matt Garza- Garza has gone 1-1 in his last 2 starts with an ERA of 4.5 and a WHIP of 1.08. He is starting to come around but is still getting beat by challenging hitters at the wrong times. Garza has looked very good over the past 4 starts (settling down from 2 bad starts) and is moving in the right direction.

Adam Wainwright- Wainwright has been stellar in his last 2 starts and the buy low window may be closing. I still worry about his higher-than-usual walk rates, but he seems to be putting it together (14 IP, ERA = 1.93, WHIP=1.07)

Ricky Romero- My patience is wearing down with Romero. I drafted him in March and have watched him struggle with consistency since. He has a 7-1 record (somehow…) but has days where he comes out with no control or simply lobs up meatballs to each hitter. I still hold out hope that he will get back to his 2011 form, but I am not very high on him right now (aka if you were in my league you could probably buy low!)

Josh Johnson- Probably getting late for a buy low as Johnson cashed in another 13 innings with a mere 3 runs since we last discussed him. One problem I have with him is that his WHIP is abnormally high. What made him SO successful in the past was that he was not only unhittable, but he had GREAT control. In his last start, he gave up 8 hits AND had 4 walks in only 6 innings… that is a WHIP of 2. He was lucky to only give up 2 runs and needs to get better in order to be a valuable chip.

Jon Lester- Finally, Lester… he has been above average in his last two starts. Not GREAT, maybe not even GOOD, but above average. He is starting to rack up some strikeouts (17 in 13.2 versus the Cubs and the Nationals), but those are both teams that strike out a lot. Lester has not had control issues (only allowed more than 1 walk in 3 of his last 10 starts, and never more than 3), but I imagine that the poor defense behind him is not helping at all. As the Sox get healthy, Lester should be due for some stat correction (hopefully for his fantasy owners).

How did I do on those hitters?

Michael Young- only 9-48 in his last 2 weeks, but I would still buy him. Even if he is a player that is on the decline (already 35 years old), his numbers will improve. I’d be happy to buy low on Young any day, and you should be too…

Alex Gordon is 17-51 in his last 2 weeks with 12 runs scored and 2 steals, but only 1 hr and 2 rbi. Look for his power numbers and runs driven in to increase, but looks like the window to buy low has likely closed.

Kevin Youkilis- Youk looks like a man distracted by the potential of being traded. The whole Red Sox team looks distraught, and while I wouldn’t necessarily start Youkilis right now, he is still likely to pay some dividends. Be careful with him though… I am less confident in him with each bad plate appearance and each time he is benched.

Ben Zobrist- Too late on him. He is 14-37 in the last 2 weeks with 9 runs scored, 3 homers, 9 rbis, and a steal. Zobrist is a notoriously streaky hitter and you may get another chance if his numbers take another dip, so keep an eye on him. I wouldn’t pay a lot for him due to his streakiness, but if someone is willing to sell him at a bargain don’t flinch.

Howie Kendrick- He is hitting .342 in his last 2 weeks (13-38), but has NO power. I’d buy into him because his power numbers will come around (I think).

Aramis Ramirez- Despite my concerns about his health, Aramis has been coming around recently. He has hit .318 with 3 homers and 8 rbis in the last two weeks and looks like he is feeling good. Grab him if you can, he is one of the best 2^nd half players in baseball.

Ryan Zimmerman- Okay, so far he has been AWFUL in the last 2 weeks. BUT I still think he will come around AND now he should be out of that “superstar” price range. Buy buy buy on him and then bench him until he turns it on.

Rickie Weeks- I am still cautiously optimistic on Weeks. The power numbers are not there… yet, but he has finally started to show some life, going 10 for his last 28 with 2 steals. I have started putting him into my starting lineup, but couldn’t blame anyone for not believing in him. If you watch carefully though, he is starting to figure out what was wrong and could be due for some HUGE numbers this July.

Here’s another name for your list: Ike Davis. Despite his HORRENDOUS start to this year, Davis has finally started to pull his weight, and good news! He is only owned in 29.1% of leagues. For the season, Davis’ batting average still sits below the Mendoza line (.196), but he is hitting .256 over the last month (I know, not AMAZING, but an improvement), .325 over the past 2 weeks, and .435 over the past week with 2 homers and 10 rbis. Maybe Ike can still salvage his season a bit here… I picked him up this week and thoroughly enjoyed his grand slam last night.

I said last time that some catchers are good buy lows… I will stick by saying that Carlos Santana is one of those. He is hitting below .200 since returning from his concussion (8/43), BUT 6 of his 8 hits have come in the past 20 at bats (after going just 2/23 to start). He also has 2 doubles in that stretch, so I expect that he is starting to feel a whole lot better from that concussion and is getting ready to explode.

Miguel Montero has shown some life (3 homers in the past 2 weeks), but each time he starts to get hot, he tapers… quickly. Still worth a roster spot in my eyes (if you have one to burn temporarily), but not worth a starting spot, and don’t drop a player you like to get on Montero.