Monday, June 25, 2012

What Did Rizzo's Last Stint Mean?

As fantasy sports players, we can all be suckers for top prospects.  Anthony Rizzo has been among the top 30 in baseball for a few years.  Today, we learned that the Cubs will call up Rizzo tomorrow and he will play everyday at first base.  Being the Cubs fan that I am, I am ecstatic.  Big Riz has been deemed the first basemen of the future since the day the Cubs traded Andrew Cashner for him.  I have very very high hopes for the 6'3 220 lb first baseman.  As a fantasy owner, I'm not so sure.

I ran to my waiver wire the last time Rizzo was called up, and was ready for him to rake.  49 games later he was sent down after doing the opposite of raking.  Mind you I know his home park was Petco, but a .141 batting average?  Even Nick Hundley isn't doing that this year (.164 BA), and he can't hit a lick.  Big league pitching proved to be too much.  I watched an interview today that showed Rizzo talking about bad habits he got into his last time up.  He said he watched them during the off-season and felt sick to his stomach.  This year, he's responded hitting a league leading 23 HR with a .343 BA in the Cubs AAA Iowa.  It seems he is ready to take a big step, but I say wait and see.  If you can get a top 10 1B for him, I'd make that move immediately.  The Cubs lineup around him is not going to help.  Currently, the Cubs sit 22nd in BA and 27th in runs scored.  Rizzo will come in and play 1st moving LaHair to the OF.  This will take away Tony Campana's spot in the lineup, which will definitely improve the offense.  Still, this is the Cubbies.  He will probably start out hitting in a non pressure spot such as the 7th spot (as most call ups do not named Bryce Harper).  Theo Epstein has gone on record saying that he doesn't want Rizzo to be the savior.  To me, this means he may remain in the 7th spot for the forseeable future.  This being said, I project Rizzo to be an above average big league hitter the rest of the way.  I think he will probably hit his fair of slumps along the way, but all in all the numbers should be fine.  His stint with the Padres does worry me to the point where I'm not overly excited.  Here is what I think he will produce:
Forecast for 2012: 280 AB, .265 BA, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 30 R

OTHER NOTES:

Robinson Cano has now homered in 6 of his last 8 games.  He is the top 2B in fantasy baseball and probably a top 7 overall player.

Matt Kemp is not expected back until the second half now.  When he gets back, I expect him to pick up right where he left off.

Wade Miley has been the best rookie pitcher this year.  I don't even think he will be the best rookie pitcher on his team by year's end.  I think I would rather have Trevor Bauer from this point on assuming Bauer stays up.  That being said, I think Miley is a pretty decent pitcher.  Should be owned in 12 team leagues.  Not sure about 10 teamers yet.

I MADE A TRADE in one of my leagues.  12 team roto league.  I was heavy on hitting and needed a pitcher with Paulino, Marcum, and Colon DL'd.  I traded Michael Young, Shin-Soo Choo and Vargas (who has been going down the drain) for Michael Bourn and Matt Garza.  I gave up a lot of hitting, but I had Yoenis Cespedes sitting on the bench along with Ryan Howard who is looming.  What do you think of this deal? I obviously gained pitching with Garza, and I liked getting the speed demon in Bourn.  I gave up a lot of average, but I'm hoping Bourn can semi make up for it with an elite average.  What do you think of the deal? Tweet me @fwfantasy, comment below, or e-mail us at foulweatherfantasy@gmail.com with comments.  Would love to hear em.  Thanks for reading as always.


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